Google is about to die.. here we go again
Mitch Ratcliffe writes: IBM (IBM) enjoyed 30 years of dominance. Microsoft (MSFT) 14 years. That suggests that the half-life of the value of market dominance is falling by more than 50 percent in each “age” of computing. Extrapolating from that trend, if we can call it that based on only two ages of computing, Google in 2007 has a year or two of dominance left.
Part of the problem with trying to predict Google’s ‘soon-to-come’ downfall is that most critics don’t have anything back it up with other than “this is so incredulous.” I really don’t think Google’s downfall will be due to click fraud; it is a nasty problem, but even with it, the system works well enough for more people to sign up for the Adwords program and by all means it is still cheaper and better than any conventional means of advertising available these days. And as long as that status quo remains unchanged, Google will remain top of the hill.
Google’s core strength is still its computing platform that gives it a ridiculously low cost/effort barrier to run something of a massive scale. The platform is the paradigm shift that powers the Google behemoth, it will take another similar paradigm shift of usurp it and I have seen nothing of that sort from either Microsoft or Yahoo!
If nothing else, I am bored with the current state of computing and it is hard to believe that we’ve been pretty much stuck with the same concepts and paradigms for the past twenty years. I would really want to experience something totally different before I turn 60 some day. Somebody, please oblige.